A nearly balanced market in the first half of the year and seasonal strengthening of demand in the second half are set to push the price of Brent Crude to $88 per barrel by the end of 2024, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
“We look for continued OPEC+ discipline in a nearly balanced market for H1, and seasonal strength in H2,” the bank’s strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday carried by FXStreet.
With the OPEC+ cuts in the first half of 2024, Deutsche Bank sees little upside to its H1 forecast of $83 per barrel Brent.
“The first possibility of relaxation of OPEC+ supply cuts will be in Q3 against a backdrop of tighter balances and higher prices, underpinned by seasonal strength,” the bank’s analysts wrote.
Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude was marginally down by 0.05% at $82.34 a barrel as of 9:00 a.m. EST, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, traded slightly higher by 0.04% at $77.06.
Oil prices fell this week amid concerns about slowing economies and anxiety that the start of easing of the U.S. interest rates could take longer than previously expected.
But geopolitical flare-ups and the disruption to commercial shipping in the Red Sea have been lending support to oil prices in recent weeks.
“The ongoing concerns over a slowdown in global consumption (especially from China) are capping any major upside in oil prices,” ING’s commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Wednesday.
“However, increasing geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+’s continuous efforts to curb output levels have kept oil prices in a tight trading range for now.”
According to Saxo Bank, the short-term outlook on oil has improved, with widening time spreads pointing to a tightening supply outlook.
“In recent weeks the market has been supported by ongoing Red Sea disruptions and emerging signs of tightness,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in an analysis on Tuesday.
