Russian crude oil shipments from its key export terminals slumped by 22%, or by 820,000 barrels per day (bpd), last week, compared to the previous week, according to tanker tracking data monitored by Bloomberg.
Last week, total Russian seaborne crude oil exports stood at 2.98 million bpd and were significantly lower than in the prior week.
Even after last week’s drop, the four-week average of Russia’s crude oil exports was around 3 million bpd, more or less in line with the average Russian crude shipments in the second half of 2022, Bloomberg’s Julian Lee notes.
However, a change in the per-barrel crude export duty due to the plunge in the price of Urals, Russia’s flagship crude grade, and the lower volumes exported last week, likely shrank Putin’s weekly crude oil revenues to the lowest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lee added.
The per-barrel export duty is expected to be even lower in February as the price of Urals continues to be well below the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel. On top of that, the EU bans—effective February 5—seaborne imports of Russian refined oil products and around 1 million bpd of Russian diesel, naphtha, and other fuels need to find a home elsewhere if Moscow wants to continue getting money for those products.
Russian revenues from oil, albeit still massive, have declined in recent weeks, according to various estimates.
Russia’s oil exports dropped by just 200,000 bpd month on month in December to 7.8 million bpd, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU embargo and G7 price cap came into effect, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly Oil Market Report last week.
Record discounts for the Russian benchmark Urals grade saw Russian oil revenues slip by $3 billion in one month to $12.6 billion in December, per the IEA estimates.
The EU oil ban and price cap are costing Russia an estimated $174 million (160 million euros) per day due to the fall in shipment volumes and prices for Russian oil, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) said in a report earlier this month.
